Uncertainties of reservoir storage capacity during low water period

The problems of recent years in the field of climate changes led to a decline in quantity of surface water and groundwater as a consequence of deepening rainfall deficits. The Czech Republic begins to feel the consequences in all areas of water management. The recent years show that the Czech Republic can be affected by floods, but also by droughts. The question is whether the size of the storage capacity of existing reservoirs have been unchanged for decades are sufficient to overcome these low water periods.

The aim of the article is to incorporate the uncertainties into the all hydrological, morphological and operational data inputs necessary for determination of reservoir storage capacity. Uncertainties are interpreted as uncertainties of measurement introduced into the reservoir simulation model using by Monte Carlo method. The implementations of these uncertainties to all inputs the total reservoir storage capacity is affected and its resulting capacity becomes also uncertain and in certain conditions even undervalued.

In the article will be presented the analysis of the Vír I reservoir storage capacity. Using the reservoir simulation model introducing of uncertainty into the calculations and following evaluation will be shown. The results will be presented in the solution including water losses from the reservoir.