Hydrological Reliability Assessment of Water Management Solution of Reservoir Storage Capacity in Conditions of Uncertainty

The aim of the article is to introduce the concept of Monte Carlo method for incorporating the uncertainties into the all hydrological and operational data inputs, which are needed to design and operation of large open water reservoir. Incorporating uncertainties into data inputs during calculation of reservoir storage capacity, then final active conversation storage capacity is loaded by uncertainties as well. In the same way the values of outflow water from reservoir and hydrological reliability are affected by these uncertainties. For these kind of calculations the reservoir simulation model has been built, which simulate behavior operation of reservoir and is able to evaluate the results of simulations and help to risk reduction of storage capacity failure, respectively reduction of water shortages during reservoirs operation.