Stochastic Forecast of Flow Reservoir Behaviour

Stochastic forecasting model is based on linear autoregressive model, which forecasting values if average monthly flow from linear combination previous values of average monthly flow, autoregressive coefficients and random numbers. Autoregressive coefficient was calculated from Yule-Walker equations (Yule, Walker, 1927, 1931). The model was compiled for forecast of 1 to 12 month with backward correlation from 2 to 11 months.