Determining hydrological reliability of water management solution function storage of water reservoir under conditions of uncertainty loaded input data

The aim of the article is to introduce the concept of Monte Carlo method for incorporating the uncertainties into the all hydrological and operational data inputs, which are needed to design and operation of large open water reservoir. Incorporating uncertainties into data inputs during calculation of reservoir storage capacity, then the consequent active conservation storage capacity is loaded by uncertainties. In the same way the values of outflow water from reservoir and hydrological reliability are affected by these uncertainties as well. For these kind of calculations the reservoir simulation model has been built, which simulate behavior operation of reservoir and is able to evaluate the results of simulations and help to reduction risk of storage capacity failure, respectively reduction of water shortages during reservoirs operation during low water and dry periods.