Using Predictive Model for Strategic Control of Multi-reservoir System Storage Capacity

Classic strategic control of reservoir system storage capacity is based mainly on the rules and rules curves, which are created by generalization of historical data of water inflows to the reservoirs. Flow series are changing in the time due to expected climate change. It is necessary to looking for intelligent reservoir control management, which will allow reacting on these hydrological changes and contributing to the efficient use of accumulated water for water supply and hydropower purposes. The paper will describe the algorithm based on adaptive-optimization of multi-reservoir control, which the medium-term water flow predictions into the reservoirs for several months ahead repeatedly use. The values of control outflows are searching by optimization based on evolutionary algorithms optimization technique. The objective function was descripted as the sum of squares deviations between required and actual controlled water outflow from reservoirs where objective function is minimized. The algorithm of adaptive control is applied to the operation storage control of selected reservoir system, which open water reservoirs Vir and Brno are created. The algorithm control has been previously applied for controlling operation of the storage capacity and for controlling operation of hydropower function of single-reservoir. Reservoir system control is carried out during three different hydrologic periods. The results for different lengths of predictions are then compared and generalized.